← Election Series · Down-ballot coverage · Arizona
Our call — vote YES
The measure
Proposition 413 is on the November 3, 2026 general-election ballot in Maricopa County. It asks voters to extend the county's existing jail-facilities sales tax for another 20 years.
The official title, as printed in the Maricopa County Elections 2026 General Election Publicity Pamphlet, is: "PROPOSITION RELATING TO TRANSACTION PRIVILEGE TAX FOR JAIL FACILITIES — OFFICIAL TITLE: COUNTY JAILS: TRANSACTION PRIVILEGE TAX OF ONE-FIFTH OF ONE CENT, the same rate as the existing jail facilities excise tax expiring in March 2027."
The pamphlet's descriptive title states: "Pursuant to authority granted by the State of Arizona, the County seeks voter approval of a transaction privilege tax set at the rate allowed under A.R.S. § 42-6109.02, section A, one-fifth of one cent to be used for county jail facilities and programs."
In plain terms: this is the county's only special sales tax, first approved in 1998 and renewed in 2002 — each time with roughly 70% support, per the county pamphlet notes. The current tax expires in March 2027. The money funds construction, renovation, and operation of adult and juvenile detention facilities, correctional health, adult and juvenile probation, and recidivism programs. The Board of Supervisors voted unanimously in January 2026 to send the extension to the voters. A simple majority decides it.
What YES does
Per the pamphlet: "A 'YES' vote shall have the effect of approving a sales tax of one-fifth of one cent ($0.002) for county jail facilities and programs, the same rate as the current tax that is expiring."
The tax continues at exactly the rate Maricopa County shoppers already pay — 0.2%, one-fifth of one cent — for 20 more years, through 2047.
What NO does
Per the pamphlet: "A 'NO' vote shall have the effect of rejecting a sales tax of one-fifth of one cent ($0.002) for jail facilities and programs."
The tax expires in March 2027 and the revenue ends with it. County staff told the Board of Supervisors that even a maximum property-tax increase could not replace the revenue — a fact printed here because the county stated it: a NO vote is a real decision to defund the jail system at this scale, not a free protest vote.
The math
Every figure below is the county's own, as printed in the pamphlet and county statements:
- Rate: 0.2% (one-fifth of one cent, $0.002) — unchanged from the expiring tax. This is an extension, not an increase.
- First full year: approximately $313 million estimated for FY 2027–28, the first full year after renewal.
- Current year comparison: approximately $288 million estimated for FY 2026 under the existing tax.
- Term: 20 years, through 2047.
- The 20-year scale, printed honestly: the county prints a first-year estimate, not a 20-year total. Simple arithmetic at a flat $313 million a year would total roughly $6.26 billion over 20 years — that is scale arithmetic, not a county projection. Actual collections will rise or fall with the county's economy, and the pamphlet prints no growth forecast. Voters should decide knowing the order of magnitude: a fifth of a cent at a time, adding up to billions across two decades, because that is what a county of this size generates.
OUR CALL
Our call: YES.
Jails are a core function of government — the least optional thing a county does. People ordered held by courts have to be held somewhere lawful, staffed, and medically served, and detention, correctional health, and probation are exactly what this tax pays for. The question on the ballot is not whether Maricopa County should have jails; it is whether an existing, voter-approved funding stream at an unchanged rate continues, or lapses on a date certain with no replacement the county itself says exists.
Three features earn the YES under our criteria. First, no new tax and no rate increase — the same one-fifth of one cent voters approved in 1998 and 2002. Second, the tax sunsets: 20 years is long, but it is a term, and a future generation of voters gets its own say rather than inheriting a permanent levy. Third, the county printed its number — $313 million for the first full year — where voters can see it before deciding.
The honest caution, printed plainly: $313 million a year for 20 years is a very large commitment, and approving it should mean expecting the county to account for it, year by year, in public. Extensions at the same rate are how governments avoid asking for new taxes; they are also how big numbers stop getting debated. Vote YES — and keep reading the county's jail budget like it is your money, because it is.
Vote YES on Proposition 413.
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Sources
- Maricopa County Elections, 2026 General Election Publicity Pamphlet — Maricopa County (website version) — Proposition 413 ballot format: official title, descriptive title, and YES/NO effect language (quoted above), 20-year term, and the county's ~$313 million first-full-year estimate — https://elections.maricopa.gov/asset/jcr:5af11871-7e96-4ad1-a13a-5492f096c005/2026%20General%20Election%20Publicity%20Pamphlet%20-%20Maricopa%20County%20-%20Website%20Version.pdf
- Research notes compiled from the county pamphlet and county staff statements to the Board of Supervisors (January 2026) — 1998/2002 approval history, ~$288 million FY 2026 estimate, funded programs, and the county's statement that a maximum property-tax increase could not replace the revenue — ~/workspace/voter-guide-research/inventory/down-ballot/notes/az-pamphlet.md
- Gap stated, not filled: the pamphlet prints no 20-year revenue total and no growth forecast; the ~$6.26 billion figure in The math is flat-rate arithmetic on the county's printed first-year estimate, labeled as such
Result pending. No verified call (Associated Press or official) as of November 4, 2026. This page will be updated when the race is called or certified. The original article above is unchanged.
AI-assisted article — but the sources are human, and the facts are very real.