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LiberalMind endorses Jacqueline "Jackie" Auringer — as unproven in Congress, and on watch
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and voting is already underway in New York. This is the whole race — the records, the claims against each candidate, and what the sources actually show. Read the research, and decide which flaw you can live with.
The setup
New York's 18th District is the Hudson Valley — all of Orange County and most of Dutchess and Ulster, including Newburgh, Beacon, Kingston, and Poughkeepsie. It is held by Rep. Pat Ryan (D), in office since September 13, 2022, when he won a special election. The district leans just D+2 in the Cook Political Report's CPVI (2025) — the closest PVI of any Democratic-held seat in this long-tail set, competitive on paper whatever the incumbent's past margins have been.
The general-election roster, per the BallotReady general-election list, is two names: Patrick "Pat" K. Ryan (D, Working Families) and Jacqueline "Jackie" Auringer (R, Conservative) — full ballot name Jacqueline Mary Theresa Auringer. This district's roster rests on BallotReady and post-primary compilations; the certified Board of Elections list was not directly retrieved in the research pass, and we say so.
Pat Ryan (Democratic, Working Families)
Ryan is a West Point graduate and Army veteran and a former Ulster County Executive, at compilation strength in the file. He first won in the August 2022 special election, defeating Marc Molinaro, then won the November 2022 general election over Colin Schmitt. He has held the seat through two cycles since.
A veteran's service and a county executive's record are real credentials, and we print them at full size. What the file does not document is a break with his party on our values in his congressional service — the Manchin test requires proven breaks, in service, and none are verified here. Absent that, Ryan stands as an incumbent of the opposing party in the most competitive Democratic seat in this set.
Pros: A West Point and Army record; executive experience as a county executive; a proven winner in a district that leans only D+2, including a special-election win and a defended general election.
Cons: No documented break toward our values in the verified file; his organizing vote organizes the House for the opposing party, in a seat where that vote is genuinely contestable.
The flaw, plainly: Ryan's flaw is the standing one, sharpened by the map: the exception is unearned on this record, and this is the one Democratic seat in the set where the organizing vote can actually be moved.
Jacqueline Auringer (Republican, Conservative)
Auringer is described as a businesswoman, per the Wikipedia campaign-list summary. She won the Republican primary. Further record: no record located in the sources searched — no prior office, no documented campaign record beyond her description and her nomination, on both the Republican and Conservative fusion lines. She is unproven.
Pros: The conservative direction on both fusion lines, in the most winnable district in this set on paper; no disqualifying record in the file.
Cons: "Businesswoman" and a primary win are the entire verified record; she asks a D+2 district to change its representation on the thinnest file in the competitive tier.
The flaw, plainly: Auringer's flaw is thinness — but thinness in a D+2 seat is a different bet than thinness in a D+27 seat, and we price it as such.
OUR CALL
LiberalMind endorses Jacqueline "Jackie" Auringer — as unproven in Congress, and on watch.
Of all the races in this set, this is the one where the doctrine and the map point the same way at full strength. The incumbent is a credible holder of his seat — veteran, former county executive, two-cycle winner — and none of that is an exception case, because the exception is priced on proven breaks in service and the file documents none. His organizing vote weighs lighter in the House than it would in the Senate, but in a D+2 district it is also the most movable vote in this entire group. The challenger is unproven with a near-empty file, and we say so plainly. We endorse her anyway, as unproven and on watch, because direction is the question and this is the district where answering it correctly can actually change the answer.
This race is one of hundreds in LiberalMind's Election 2026 coverage. For the complete breakdown — every race, claim by claim — go to liberalmindhq.com.
Vote early. Research your candidates. Choose the best moderates, whatever their party — no extremism from either side. And encourage your friends and family to do the same.
Sources
- BallotReady — New York General Election list (general-election roster, including the Working Families and Conservative fusion lines and Auringer's full ballot name)
- Wikipedia — "2026 United States House of Representatives elections in New York" (post-primary compilation; Ryan's special-election and 2022 general-election wins; Auringer's description and primary win)
- Cook Political Report — CPVI (2025), via Wikipedia (D+2 — the closest Democratic-held PVI in this set)
Winner: Patrick Ryan (Democratic) — called by the Associated Press. This result was appended on November 4, 2026 (results wave 1); the original article above is unchanged, exactly as published before Election Day.
AI-assisted article — but the sources are human, and the facts are very real.