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Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and voting is underway in Wisconsin. This is the whole race — the records, the claims, and what the sources actually show. Read the research, and decide which flaw you can live with.
The setup Cook lists this district's PVI at R+8 and rates it Solid R; Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) was re-elected with 61.2% in 2024 (compilation — Wikipedia national summary table, corroborated by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Oct. 23, 2026, and the Post-Crescent, which list the same five-candidate field). Also on the ballot: Green Matthew Arndt, a business owner; independent Elizabeth Fitzgibbon, endorsed by the Libertarian Party (per Wikipedia), with no further record located; and independent Michael Thurow, a firefighter endorsed by the Forward Party, the Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin, and IAFF Local 215, who raised $154,864 through June 30, 2026 — an unusually funded independent. One item prints only at its sourced strength: the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported Oct. 23, 2026 that Arndt was “recently charged in connection with a road rage incident.” That report is single-source in this research and unverified beyond that outlet, and we print it only as that reported, unverified item — it plays no role in our call. Grothman highlighted his support for the 2025 Working Families Tax Cut (“One Big Beautiful Bill”) in this race.
Glenn Grothman (Republican) The record: U.S. representative since Jan. 3, 2015 (first elected 2014, succeeding Tom Petri); re-elected with 61.2% in 2024; committees per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Oct. 23, 2026): Education and the Workforce; Oversight and Accountability (chair, Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs); Budget; and Judiciary; previously Wisconsin Senate 2005–2015 (Assistant Majority Leader 2011–2015) and State Assembly 1993–2005; a practicing estate-planning/probate attorney and tax preparer before office; won the 2026 Republican primary with 99.68%. Pros: Three decades of proven elected service at state and federal levels, subcommittee leadership, and a 61.2% re-election. Cons: No proven in-service flaw was located in this file. The flaw, plainly: No disqualifying flaw was located on this record — the contested items in this race belong to other candidates' files, printed in the setup at their sourced strength.
Brad Smith (Democratic) The record: Businessman — Army National Guard veteran and software-company leader who has held executive roles at Fortune 500 companies and venture-backed startups (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel); won the Democratic primary with 50.18% — a 367-vote margin (36,413 to 36,046) over former USGS center operations officer Amanda Bell, a near-tie flagged in the research for canvass confirmation. Pros: A veteran and business executive who won a genuinely contested primary. Cons: His nomination rests on 367 votes and is flagged for canvass confirmation; he has no in-service record in this file and no Manchin-test break. The flaw, plainly: He is unproven, narrowly nominated, and his vote would organize with the Democratic caucus — none of which displaces a proven incumbent with no heavy flaw file.
OUR CALL LiberalMind endorses Glenn Grothman.
Grothman is a proven incumbent in an R+8 district with no heavy flaw in the research. Smith is unproven, his primary is flagged for canvass confirmation on a 367-vote margin, and no exception case exists. The two independents and the Green are printed in the setup at the strength the file gives them. Endorse Grothman.
This race is one of hundreds in LiberalMind's Election 2026 coverage. For the complete breakdown — every race, claim by claim — go to liberalmindhq.com.
Vote early. Research your candidates. Choose the best moderates, whatever their party — no extremism from either side. And encourage your friends and family to do the same.
--- Sources - Wikipedia — “2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin” and national summary table (five-candidate roster, PVI R+8, primary results including the 367-vote Democratic margin) - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Oct. 23, 2026) — five-candidate field, Grothman's committees, Smith's background, and the single-source, unverified report on Arndt, printed only at that strength - Post-Crescent — corroboration of the five-candidate field - Cook Political Report — Solid R
Winner: Glenn S. Grothman (Republican) — called by the Associated Press. This result was appended on November 4, 2026 (results wave 1); the original article above is unchanged, exactly as published before Election Day.
AI-assisted article — but the sources are human, and the facts are very real.