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Our verdict

LiberalMind endorses Eric Toney

Election Day is November 3. Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul seeks a third term against Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney — the same Republican he beat by about 1.3 points, roughly 35,000 votes, in 2022. Kaul's second term is defined by more than 60 — by October, more than 70 — lawsuits against the Trump administration. Toney's challenge is defined by the state crime lab. One forecast model calls it Likely D; the 2022 margin says the model's confidence is the model's own. Both are printed below, unaveraged. LiberalMind endorses Eric Toney. Read the research, and see why.

How Wisconsin got here

Both nominees were unopposed in their primaries (2026 Wisconsin elections summary; Badger Project). No third-party or independent candidate appears in any roster sourced this pass; the Post-Crescent voter guide lists only Kaul and Toney. The money, printed as named compilations with their periods, never blended. Full-year 2026 to October 20 (Badger Project): Kaul raised nearly $1.8 million, Toney about $1.4 million. January 1–June 30 (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel): Kaul raised ~$836,000 with ~$1.3 million on hand; Toney raised ~$723,000 with $788,000 on hand. Named max donors ($20,000 limit): Lynn and Stacy Schusterman to Kaul; Diane Hendricks and Richard Uihlein to Toney. Outside money: the Republican Attorneys General Association announced a $500,000 early TV buy for Toney and named Wisconsin a top 2026 battleground.

Competitiveness, printed as the conflict it is: The WisPredict forecast model (accessed Oct. 25, 2026) gives Kaul a 92.8% win probability, a projected 58.2–41.8 vote share, and a "Likely D" rating — a single forecast model, not a rating-house consensus; no Cook, Inside Elections, or Sabato rating for this race was located. Against it stands the hardest structural fact in the file: these same two candidates finished 1.3 points apart in 2022. Marquette Law School polling in August 2026 found name recognition low for a rematch — 61% had no opinion of Kaul, 80% none of Toney — and no head-to-head trial heat was in the sourced material. We print the model and the margin side by side and adopt neither as a verdict.

Josh Kaul (Democratic) — the incumbent

Background and service: Attorney General since 2019; defeated incumbent Brad Schimel in 2018, 49.4% to 48.8%, and Toney in 2022 by ~1.3 points (Wisconsin Watch; Badger Project). Yale, Stanford Law; federal prosecutor in Baltimore 2010–2014, where he "prosecuted murderers, gang members and drug traffickers" per his official bio as summarized by the Journal Sentinel.

The federal-litigation record — the defining record, with its counts dated: FOX6 reported in September 2026 that Kaul "joined lawsuits against the Trump administration more than 60 times"; by the October debate coverage the figure was "more than 70 lawsuits" over two years, including fights over federal funding, birthright citizenship, and absentee voting (Focal News; Center Square via Lake Country Tribune). The counts conflict by date because the count kept growing; we print the range with its dates. Kaul's defense, in his words: "We keep winning, by the way. We win over and over again because the administration is openly flouting the law" (WisPolitics). He distinguishes his suits from predecessor Schimel's anti-ACA litigation on the ground that his protect Wisconsinites while Schimel was "playing politics" (WisPolitics; Wisconsin Watch — which notes Kaul in 2018 made similar anti-politicization arguments against Schimel). On abortion, Kaul says he would join multistate litigation to protect access to abortion medication; on the federal voter-data demand, he says the state cannot lawfully provide the requested information (Wisconsin Watch; Focal News).

Our pricing of that record: Suing the federal government of the opposing party, seventy-plus times, is the modern Democratic attorney-general program executed reliably. It is enabler-class party service — diligent, and pointed the other way. On immigration enforcement specifically: we always back ICE the agency and its job. No Kaul record of cooperation with federal enforcement was located in this research; his located record is litigation against the administration conducting it. Enforcement is the law being enforced, and an attorney general whose defining second-term project is suing that administration has placed himself against it. We price the documented record, nothing else.

The crime lab — the attack and the answer, both sourced: Toney charges DNA testing takes "an average of twice as long to test less DNA, despite having more analysts and better technology," and that Kaul left new DNA-analyst positions unfilled (FOX6; MacIver Institute), resting in part on a 2024 Legislative Audit Bureau audit (Center Square). Kaul's answer: in the 2023–25 budget he asked for 16 positions and got three, "none were for DNA," and in the last budget asked for 19 and got none — "the Legislature … continued to deny the resources we have requested" (FOX6). The underlying turnaround-time figures were not independently verified against the audit itself in this research, and we print the exchange as an exchange. RAGA's affiliated Safer Wisconsin Fund ad claims 7,000 untested rape kits and convictions "for only 1% of victims" — an attack-ad claim from an interested party, not verified against DOJ data, printed as an ad claim only.

Pros: A proven two-term incumbent who wins his lawsuits at a rate he can quote, a modest fundraising edge, and a prosecutor's biography of his own.

Cons: His second term's defining project is litigation against the federal administration — the party program, executed faithfully. The crime-lab dispute is unresolved on the located record, with an audit underneath it that neither campaign's version was verified against here.

The flaw, plainly: Alignment in service: seventy-plus suits against the administration, no located break toward our values, no located enforcement-cooperation record. Enabler-class, proven — not extremist, and not priced as one.

Eric Toney (Republican) — the prosecutor

Background and service: Fond du Lac County district attorney since 2013 (first elected 2012 — the election/service dates in the sources are consistent, not a conflict); St. Norbert College and Hamline Law (FOX6; Journal Sentinel; Wisconsin Watch). The 2022 Republican nominee, beaten by ~1.3 points. Named Wisconsin's 2024 District Attorney of the Year, credited with launching Fond du Lac County's first Drug Court and securing homicide convictions in fentanyl-overdose cases (RAGA — an allied source, attributed as such). He says 75% of the state's sheriffs have endorsed him — his claim as reported by FOX6; the list was not independently counted in this research.

His positions, sourced: He defends Wisconsin's post-20-week abortion ban and says he would have joined the West Virginia-led case restricting girls' sports teams to biological females, while declining to say which of Kaul's 70-plus suits he would have joined (Wisconsin Watch; Center Square).

Status under our standard: Proven as a prosecutor across thirteen years in Fond du Lac County; unproven as a statewide officeholder. The call line reflects both.

Pros: Thirteen proven years running a prosecutor's office, a statewide campaign already run to within 1.3 points, the sheriffs' endorsement claim, and RAGA's battleground investment behind him.

Cons: He lost this exact race in 2022. His crime-lab case rests partly on an audit whose figures were not verified in this research, and his allied ad's rape-kit numbers are unverified attack claims. Eighty percent of voters had no opinion of him in August.

The flaw, plainly: No flaw proven in service was located. The priced items are a prior loss in this race and an attack record that outruns its verification — the rhetoric species, priced as such.

OUR CALL

LiberalMind endorses Eric Toney.

Kaul is a proven incumbent whose proven record is the opposing party's attorney-general program — seventy-plus suits against the administration, printed with his own winning defense of them — with no Manchin-test break located and no enforcement-cooperation record located. Toney is a proven county prosecutor asking for a statewide office for the second time, having come within 35,000 votes of it four years ago. On the doctrine this is not close: endorse the proven in-tent prosecutor. The competitiveness evidence is printed as the conflict it is — one model's Likely D against a 1.3-point history — and we flag in our report that the call and the model point in opposite directions.

For the complete Election 2026 breakdown — every race, claim by claim — see the full coverage on our website.

Vote early. Research your candidates. Choose the best moderates, whatever their party — no extremism from either side. And encourage your friends and family to do the same.

Sources

Election result — November 4, 2026

Winner: Josh Kaul (Democratic) — called by the Associated Press. This result was appended on November 4, 2026 (results wave 1); the original article above is unchanged, exactly as published before Election Day.

AI-assisted article — but the sources are human, and the facts are very real.

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